TB @ ATL

Advice: Take the UNDER (35.5)

Here’s Why:

I don’t think I need to dive into this one too much.  TB started hot, but has cooled off offensively.  Atlanta has never gotten on track and stuggle weekely to put points on the board.

Defensively both teams are relatively stout.  This should be a game for the defensive lovers - and even they might struggle to watch the whole game.  It’ll take a special team or defensive TD to make this one close to the line, I think.

 Side Notes:

• Tampa Bay is 13-4 UNDER after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points and 14-5 UNDER following a win.
• Dating back to last season, Atlanta is 18-6 UNDER in all home games including 8-1 UNDER vs. division foes

Tampa Bay @ Washington

Advice: TB -1.5

Here’s why:

Tampa Bay has the W in 6 out of the last 8 meetings against Washington at home.  Washington’s goals per game average this year is 2.3 - with a 1.6 goals per game average over the last 5.  In comparison, TB is 7-2 at home and putting up 4.1 goals a game while allowing only 2.2.

The Lightning are hot right now outscoring their opponents 19-5 over their last 4 contests.  Washington is a lowly 15-43 going back over a season vs. good PP teams (TB is a GREAT PP team, converting 22%).

Side Notes:

• These 2 met last week with TB winning 5-2
• Capitals are 4-7 on the road this year

North Carolina-Charlotte vs GT

Advice:  NCC +9.5

Here’s why:

Georgia Tech has few returning starters and are very young.  This is quite a trip to ask a young team to make.

NCC is 2-0 on the young season and should be amped to get a big ACC win.

Side Notes:

• NCC is +5 in rebounds so far this year

TCU @ UNLV

Advice: Take UNLV +17

Here’s Why:

TCU was supposed to be a national threat this year- and had high hopes to push for an at large Bowl Bid.  However, they are losing steam and now stand at an unimpressive 5-5 on the year. 

UNLV, on the other hand, comes in losers of 6 straight.  They are a little underachieving in that area though - having outgained their opponents in the last 3 contests by a margin of 1307-1179.  They’ve played well as of late and the offense is seeming to gel.  Seems like just the right ingredients to cover a big line.

Side Notes:

• In their last 4 games TCU has given up 90 points.
• UNLV recently shutout Utah and took Wisconsin into the 4th with the lead.

Gardner Webb vs Conn

Advice:  Take Gardner Webb +14

 Gardner Webb is on a roll.  They will have the crowd backing them at MSG as a live dog fresh off an upset. 

I like them to cover in this game.

Washington @ Florida

Advice:  Take the UNDER (6)

HERE’S WHY:

Washington has lost 12 of the last 16 against Florida (6 of 8 at Florida).  Washington is having a tough time so far this year finding the net - averaging only 2.4 goals.  They are even worse in the division at 2.2 goals per, not to mention the 1.8 goals per over their last 5.  They have hit the UNDER 7 out of 10 times this year.

Florida has been putting up only 2.5 a game this season, and a lowly 2.2 over their last five games.  Both teams are struggling offensively right now.

 SIDE NOTES:

Florida is 19-8 UNDER at home vs. losing teams since last season.

Washington is hitting 100% (5-0) UNDER this season following a division game.

Show me love for Minnesota +6

Here’s why:

Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson.  If you mention the Vikings in conversation you undoubtedly turn to talking about the running game - as in it’s all they have offensively and teams have a heck of time running against them.  The Vikings hold a sizeable lead on the league in rushing yards per game with 183.1 ypg (#2 is Pittsburgh at a lofty 150.5 ypg), and a solid #2 in rushing yards against with 70.4 ypg.  Last I checked the Packers couldn’t run on anyone.  Not to mention their ‘knight in shining armor’ Ryan Grant went out with a concussion last week - that won’t help their dead-last 2.6 yard per carry average.

Yes, the Pack is back this year a die-hard cheese head would gloat…  However, in the betting world they may not be as good as their record leads on.  Close games have been the Packers style so far this season, and more than a few of those W’s could be L’s.  This is all of a sudden a huge emotional, meaningful divisional game who will step up to the plate?  Over the last 8 seasons, the underdog has covered in 14 of the 16 meetings, with 1 loss and a push to fill.  39 points total have decided the last 10 meetings - with 1 lone game coming via more points then this line (even that was only a 7 point game).

 SIDE NOTES:

• Peterson seems to get better as team stack the line.  Over the last month he has broken off TD runs of 20, 35, 46, 64, 67 and 73 yards.  Look for Peterson to put one up from just about anywhere on any down right now.
• For a ultra-competitive division rivalry - some huge points are being laid.  Not saying the Vikes win flat out - but I’ll say they keep it close enough to cover.

Final words of wisdom:  Luck is a huge part of professional sports (Ask a Denver fan why they aren’t 0-8) - and in part luck plays a roll in betting on sports.  Knowing how to ride the emotions of a lucky win is how the Vegas odds makers make money - they know fans have emotions too!  Turn the tables and don’t be lucky - be smart!

-Take care! Good luck *wink*!

This is not the popular thing to do, but do it I must!  This week, I’m picking out three upsets.  I may lose all three, but I seriously doubt it.

Bet on Minnesota and take the 6pts.

More A-Pete means less time for Green Bay’s offense on the field. Take Minnesota and the +6pts.  Time of possession will be a determining factor in this game.  A-Pete showed you what he could do last week by smashing the single game rushing record.  I can’t believe, strike that…  I can’t FREEGIN’ believe that they are giving away 6pts to Minnesota.  Look for A-Pete to make Green Bay’s defense look like some high school shit.  After this game you will begin to realize that A-Pete is potentially the best running back EVER!

Bet on Cleveland and take the 10pts!

Not to take anything away from Pittsburgh, because we all know that they are good.  The question is…  are you 10 freegin points better.  I don’t think so.  Cleveland will prove that they are a team to be contended with in this game.  With the +10 pts, you should come out on top!

Take the N.Y. Giants and the 1 and 1/2 pts.

Dallas is a proven team and they look good on paper. Still, I believe Tony Romo will make mistakes in this game. Look for Dallas turnovers to be the decisive factor.  They simply have not played a team as tenacious as the N.Y. Giants.

Do you think the New England Patriots are Cheaters?

By God I do! Funny thing to me that Belichick and Co. could not do shit until the late third / early fourth quarter. This was only because they cracked Indianapolis play calling signals. Look at this fucking handshake. That cheating piece of shit can’t even look Tony Dungee in the eyes.

For more on the ever growing sideline surveillance controversy read this article by USA today.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2007-09-18-paranoia-cover_N.htm

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

I love Memphis +16.5 this week against Southern Miss. 

Here’s why:

Yes, Southern Miss has dominated this series (hence the huge overlay), going 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS over the past 15 meetings.  But, the average spread was less then half what they are getting today - Southern Miss was averaging -5.5.

 So far this season, Southern Miss has never been asked to lay anything near 16.5 points - even at home - where their average line was less then half that.  I find it hard to believe that a team that scores only 26.9 ppg is going to cover such a huge spread, especially when they have only outscored their opponents by a shade over 3 ppg so far this season.

Memphis on the other hand - can score points.  Their offense is ranked #45 in the nation and should be able to put up the numbers to cover this spread easily.  Speaking of offenses, Southern Miss has never been much of an offensive team - which is why they have had trouble in the past with large spreads at home (having covered a double-digit line just once in 4 years for a whopping 1-6 ATS in that time frame).  Memphis has done just the opposite, having failed to cover as a double-digit dog only once on the road since Novemeber of 2001 (6-1 ATS in this role since then).

SIDE NOTES: 

• With coach Tommy West, Memphis is 9-2 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. 
• Southern Miss has just nine TD passes from their QB’s to 10 picks while Memphis stands at 21 TD’s to 9 picks.

Final words of wisdom:  Don’t bet the farm if you can’t afford to lose the farm.  Be smart, do some research - you’ll come out OK.  Nothing is guaranteed (or those odds makers in Vegas would be out of work) - but, making a good, well-informed bet is usually the difference.

-Take Care! Good luck!

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