I love Memphis +16.5 this week against Southern Miss. 

Here’s why:

Yes, Southern Miss has dominated this series (hence the huge overlay), going 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS over the past 15 meetings.  But, the average spread was less then half what they are getting today - Southern Miss was averaging -5.5.

 So far this season, Southern Miss has never been asked to lay anything near 16.5 points - even at home - where their average line was less then half that.  I find it hard to believe that a team that scores only 26.9 ppg is going to cover such a huge spread, especially when they have only outscored their opponents by a shade over 3 ppg so far this season.

Memphis on the other hand - can score points.  Their offense is ranked #45 in the nation and should be able to put up the numbers to cover this spread easily.  Speaking of offenses, Southern Miss has never been much of an offensive team - which is why they have had trouble in the past with large spreads at home (having covered a double-digit line just once in 4 years for a whopping 1-6 ATS in that time frame).  Memphis has done just the opposite, having failed to cover as a double-digit dog only once on the road since Novemeber of 2001 (6-1 ATS in this role since then).

SIDE NOTES: 

• With coach Tommy West, Memphis is 9-2 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. 
• Southern Miss has just nine TD passes from their QB’s to 10 picks while Memphis stands at 21 TD’s to 9 picks.

Final words of wisdom:  Don’t bet the farm if you can’t afford to lose the farm.  Be smart, do some research - you’ll come out OK.  Nothing is guaranteed (or those odds makers in Vegas would be out of work) - but, making a good, well-informed bet is usually the difference.

-Take Care! Good luck!